Oh ho ho. Now here’s some very interesting data about the so-called Long Tail power curve and the old-fashioned Log Normal distribution:
The most comprehensive empirical study of digital music sales ever conducted has some bad news for Californian technology utopians. Since 2004, WiReD magazine editor Chris Anderson has been hawking his “Long Tail” proposition around the world: blockbusters will matter less, and businesses will “sell less of more”. The graph has become iconic – a kind of ‘Hockey Stick’ for Web 2.0 – with the author applying his message to many different business sectors. Alas, following the WiReD Way of Business as a matter of faith could be catastrophic for your business and investment decisions.
For the rest, read Andrew Orlowski’s article in The Register. Some bean-counting economists have crunched the numbers and basically when it comes to sales of music (and probably, in my opinion, everything else–books for sure), Log Normal rules. In other words, blockbusters matter much, much more than midlist.
Nicola Griffith 
Whoa, that is interesting. Did you read < HREF="http://www.longtail.com/the_long_tail/2008/11/more-long-tail.html" REL="nofollow">Anderson’s response<>? I thought this comment of theirs was pretty hard to argue with, “”In particular, the division of labour and economies of scale still have tremendous relevance to understanding today’s market.”I guess that’s less true with downloadable items than books, but still…I have to say I really liked that whole “1000 Fans” concept.
Yes, I’ve read it. This is one of those discussions where people divide into two camps and get disingenuous. I take both POVs with a sackful of salt.In terms of book sales, I’ve never believed in ‘long tail’ powerlaw distribution. Or, hmmn, it would be more accurate to say that the powerlaw reality might matter to aggregators but it makes no bloody difference to me. And the 1,000 true fans notion is a fantasy. Earning a living in the arts is all about lognormal distribution. It’s about being a bestseller.
Yeah, I think lots of people needed (wanted) to believe in the fantasy…
yep, it’s like living on air: wouldn’t it be nice? [wistful sigh]