Buckle up, it’s going to be a bumpy ride… Yee ha!I’ve just read this Times article about the depths serious historians are having to plumb in this terrible economy. They’re having to resort to…fiction. Poor sad things.
Authors are seeing advances reduced to a quarter of what they could have expected two years ago as publishers react to the recession by minimising risks.
Among the hardest hit are historians, who have found that books that would previously have earned them an advance of £120,000 are now commanding only £30,000. Some academics have turned from serious history to historical fiction to earn more money.
I can’t imagine anything worse for the little lambs. Fiction, eh? Their reputations are ruined!
Yes, behind the Entitled R Us surface (“There is a dangerous tendency among historians to slide into historical fiction, which must be avoided at all costs…”) lies a serious point: literary advances aren’t what they used to be. I’ve spent the last few days pondering economics–looking at industry P&Ls and making sure I understand emotionally as well as intellectually that publishing as we know it is dead. It is. Extinct, gone to its maker, an ex-parrot industry. (Go look at those numbers. Things are worse now–higher discounts, higher returns, lower buy-ins, pressure towards lower prices.)
At some point I’ll take some guesses at how the new model/s will work, or won’t work, but for now I’m trying to come to terms with the fact that the career I’ve aimed for since I was 25 (think of a book, outline the book, get paid enough to live on while I write the book, publish the book, earn extra from foreign rights, book club, royalties, think of another book…) no longer exists. I have no doubt, zero, that I’ll be able to make my way in the new world; I just don’t know what that looks like, exactly. It feels… Well, it feels scary but cool. The rules have changed, the gloves are off, buckle up it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Strangely, I’m grinning.
Update: here’s an interesting link.
Nicola Griffith 
hey whatever you have to do – please please please find the time to squeeze in those books – the recession won't last and meantime we'll all be worse off without your words BTW I just bought a lovely Aud book of yours – Always – at proper price not 2nd hand – I know it's not much but I am trying my best!!
There is no question that I'll write novels; it's not just what I do but a large part of who I am. No worries.
And, hey, thanks for buying.
I’m glad to hear that you are grinning. Good for you.
Someone reminded me this weekend of a book that was published over 10 years ago called, “Who Moved My Cheese?” I realized that’s what I’ve been asking myself for months.
I’ve talked about this before with my industry (photography). It’s happening in a lot of fields. People will adapt to the new model or they won’t. But yes, what is/will be the new model? I read recently this on from a photographer (who’s in the top 3%):
“I’ve been having lots of discussions around the country lately about what viable new model might be developing for advertising and editorial photographers to survive in this new economic era and beyond. Guess what: there isn’t one. Yet. And probably at this point there won’t be one. Photographers are too fragmented and pulling at cross purposes for too many years. We’ve been giving away internet rights for so long that’s become entrenched as pretty much free.” – Doug Menuez
Some people don’t think a viable model will emerge for most editorial and advertising photographers. There are different factors at play in photography and in publishing, but some of them overlap. Especially since those photographs need to be published somewhere.
It ties into this whole ‘free’ thing.
Did you read Malcolm Gladwell’s review of Chris Anderson’s new book, “Free”? He doesn’t like it. Anderson had a rebuttal on his website that I thought was kinda lame. But he is giving his book away in various forms. I'll wait for the free e-book
Menuez wrote about the free concept on his blog. He is against it, saying:
“So let’s settle the question of whether using a photograph or text or music outside of “fair use” without permission is stealing. It is. Period. Look it up. It’s illegal. Whether you think it’s morally ok to steal is your problem and karma. If you want to roll through stop signs, cheat on your taxes, or avoid paying sales tax in your home state by buying online, that’s your choice.
But just because a misguided groundswell that began in the 80’s and 90’s out of an idealistic dream driven by new technology we should erase Article I, Section 8, Clause 8 from the US Constitution? Because millions of kids started downloading music because they could? And now they think it’s a right? I forcefully disagree. Just because it’s socially cool to steal my photographs does not mean I have to give up my only way of making a living, granted to me by the Founding Fathers no less. Socially cool behavior has never made a good basis for legal or social policy as far as I know. Gimme a break.
“Information wants to be free…” is the rallying cry for free content supporters. It actually comes from an comment by the brilliant technology observer and writer Steward Brand in a speech in 1984 and later from his book “The Media Lab: Inventing the Future at MIT,” Viking Penguin, in 1987. The problem is Mr. Brand’s comment is almost never quoted in full. The second half of his observation is very important: “Information also wants to be expensive…” and he goes on to describe the tension between the push to distribute free information over the ever cheaper distribution platforms and the extremely valuable nature that the right information for the right person at the right time can have. It can be life changing.”
And I tend to agree with him, but I don’t think there is any way of turning the tide at this point. He mentions in that post a recent NYT’s article advising people to decorate their houses with images from Flickr for free. Photographers were outraged over this and many demanded an apology from the NYT. It never came. It’s clear in her original post that she had some doubt about the copyright issues, but she didn’t bother to do any research. The same writer wrote a follow-up post telling why anything posted online probably falls into the ‘fair use’ category even if it is designated as ‘all rights reserved.’
Free just doesn’t seem to make sense for some things.
Mostly though, I agree with what Seth Godin has said about it, “The first argument that makes no sense is, “should we want free to be the future?”
Who cares if we want it? It is.
The second argument that makes no sense is, “how will this new business model support the world as we know it today?”
Who cares if it does? It is. It's happening. The world will change around it, because the world has no choice. I'm sorry if that's inconvenient, but it's true.”
Anyway, this has gotten wordy (so wordy in fact that I had to put it into two comments!), but I was wondering what you make of all this free stuff. It seems to be part of the new model.
Yep, read the Gladwell piece, and Godin's. Gladwell struck me as a bit pissy, but some good points. Godin's struck me as a kind of ADD pragmatism. I think if you added 'for now' to all his points, I'd say he's right. But the current freebie situation isn't sustainable for any of us, producers or consumers. It will change. I'm just not sure what it will look like in 5 yrs.
“I'm just not sure what it will look like in 5 yrs.”
I don't think anyone else is sure either. But you're right – at some point it will have to level out. People still have to pay for stuff. But every person on twitter with a camera on their cell phone can be a photojournalist now. Quality doesn't matter to some.
I think they both have some good points. It's easy to get pissy about this stuff given what's at stake I think. Godin sort of contradicts himself toward the end by saying something about how people will pay for content if this and that. And he also qualifies it in the beginning by sort of saying something about broad strokes – not really giving everything away – use it as a marketing ploy. Whatever.
TV was free when I was a kid. It just had advertising. Then came cable and premium channels that cost extra with no advertising.
I think about this free thing a lot. I run a magazine that's free for readers, but we DO pay our authors (a paltry sum, but it's something, and we don't hang onto the rights for very long). But we want to get the magazine read and we love to support new authors, so it gives us the chance to do that.
Personally, there is some writing I'm willing to do for free if I think I'll get publicity out of it or especially if I can do an up-and-comer a good turn. But I charged my own HUSBAND for some technical writing. I mean, it's my job for crissake, one I've trained for and worked hard to learn.
But then there's Doctorov and others who put every book out there for free download and claims it sells novels for them. I just bought all of Charlie Huston's books after reading two of them online. I have friends advertising their books on facebook and myspace and nearly every author I know posts a chapter or two on their website. I know I plan on doing that, should my publisher allow me.
I think advertising may pay for more and more of authors' salaries and it'll come more and more in the form of like with like. Meaning, advertising in books for more books (which already happens) but also advertising for books in free spots, posting chapters, etc, so readers can take a look.
Kind of a convoluted comment, reflecting my convoluted thinking on these issues. I don't know what the answer is, either, but I too am very excited for the future.
Although self-publishing has a bad odor about it now, perhaps traditionally-published authors might find it a more attractive alternative. It costs a minimal amount now to become a publishing company, and while there's no advance, the author/publisher keeps a bigger piece of each sale. I would think an established author with fans waiting for the next book might find it quite lucrative.
The e-book phenomenon is making it much easier for authors to develop a following. I'm giving away the first book of a trilogy as a free download from my website, and it's not only selling Books II and III, but also, I think, the paperbacks.
The future belongs, as always, to those who go with the times, not those who drag their feet.
Catherine M. Wilson
http://www.whenwomenwerewarriors.com
http://www.catherine-m-wilson.com
I agree with you about going with the times Catherine. I'm going to put your first book on my kindle too. That free thing does work as a lead-in marketing tool.
The thing I didn't mention about that photographer I quoted was this: right after he said that about thinking that there would be no new model for photographers emerging, he said that he had to think that for now we just have to keep doing the things that have always worked – only do them more. WTF? And in subsequent posts and articles he is advising people just starting out to just work hard be better photographers. He doesn't ignore the business side, in fact he stresses it, but he also advises people to go get a $!00,00 SBA loan based on the old model. I find that extremely irresponsible. His new model includes giving seminars in which he is teaching that same thing. And just be a better photographer – the cream will rise. Instead of saying, hey, lets figure out what this new model will be – let's create it.
In my mind making money in a creative field has never been just about being the best – it's as much or more about marketing and business savvy.
In one of those things I read recently about the free thing they quote a study done about it. I don't remember the figures, but the basics were that first people were offered two products (both priced under $1). One was of better quality than the other. The higher quality item was priced higher and people bought it more. Then the lower quality item was made free and the other price was lowered to like $.10 or something. People took the free thing over a low priced quality item.
Free is not a business model, it's a marketing technique.
Ok, I promise to shut up about this. But the good thing about having the comments go way down to the bottom is seeing the new book widget on the right. :)
I have total faith in you nicola.
Cool. Watch for tomorrow's post…